How does your forecast compare to the industry?
TL;DR: Most ecommerce demand forecasts land between 50% and 70% accuracy (MAPE 30-50%). Top-quartile teams hit 78-82% accuracy at SKU-week level. AI-driven planners typically lift accuracy 20-50% over spreadsheet baselines.
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| Tier | Accuracy | MAPE | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top quartile | 78-82% | 18-22% | Gartner Forecasting Benchmark, 2024 |
| Above average | 70-78% | 22-30% | McKinsey AI in Operations, 2024 |
| Industry average | 50-70% | 30-50% | IBF Demand Planning Survey, 2024 |
| Needs work | <50% | >50% | IBF Demand Planning Survey, 2024 |
Industry benchmarks compiled from IBF, Gartner, and McKinsey. See our full 2026 demand-forecasting statistics report for the complete dataset.
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Aggregated from anonymous, opt-in submissions to this calculator. Updated live; powers the quarterly Forthcast State-of-Forecasting report.